Prompt Sensitivity and Answer Consistency of Small Open-Source Large Language Models on Clinical Question Answering: Implications for Low-Resource Healthcare Deployment

arXiv:2603.00917v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Small open-source language models are gaining attention for low-resource healthcare settings, but their reliability under different prompt phrasings remains poorly understood. We evaluated five open-source models (Gemma 2 2B, Phi-3 Mini 3.8B, Llama 3.2 3B, Mistral 7B, and Meditron-7B domain-pretrained without instruction tuning) across three clinical QA datasets (MedQA, MedMCQA, PubMedQA) using five prompt styles (original, formal, simplified, roleplay, direct). We measured consistency scores, accuracy, and instruction-following failure rates. All inference ran locally on consumer CPU hardware without fine-tuning. Consistency and accuracy were largely independent. Gemma 2 achieved the highest consistency (0.845-0.888) but lowest accuracy (33.0-43.5%), while Llama 3.2 showed moderate consistency (0.774-0.807) with the highest accuracy (49.0-65.0%). Roleplay prompts consistently reduced accuracy across all models, with Phi-3 Mini dropping 21.5 percentage points on MedQA. Meditron-7B exhibited near-complete instruction-following failure on PubMedQA (99.0% UNKNOWN rate), showing domain pretraining alone is insufficient for structured clinical QA. High consistency does not imply correctness. Models can be reliably wrong, a dangerous failure mode in clinical AI. Roleplay prompts should be avoided in healthcare applications. Llama 3.2 showed the strongest balance of accuracy and reliability for low-resource deployment. Safe clinical AI requires joint evaluation of consistency, accuracy, and instruction adherence.